As I predicted in my last column, the Senate Finance version of health care reform will form the core of whatever ultimately passes both houses of congress. The Republican minority attempted to derail reform, only to reveal to the Democrats that they can pass reform without Republican support. The opposition party comes off looking merely obstructionist, with the exception of Olympia Snowe.
The Public Option, once on life support, is making a remarkable recovery. Still in all, I am not a big fan of the public option because it will artificially depress the market. The reason is that supporters of the public option intend to set initial pricing at current Medicare rates, which are already below market value. Many older primary care physicians, whose patients have aged along with them into the Medicare universe, are retiring early because they can't afford to keep their practices operating at the rates Medicare pays. If the public option is implemented at those same rates, physicians will opt out, either immediately, or after trying to make it work for several months.
If this is indeed the turn of events, the public option, rather than tempering the rates charged by commercial insurers for individual and small group plans, will simply devolve into an empty shell, much like the Competitive Acquisition Program that CMS attempted to launch several years ago. For most of you, who have never heard of the CAP, it was an attempt to knock physicians out of the drug reselling business, where oncologists, for instance, earned most of their profits. CMS sought to control costs by enticing a handful of drug distributers to bid for the government's business. These few companies, in turn would have in effect an oligopoly (except without the ability to artificially prop up prices, which is the main purpose of oligopolies). These companies would then develop extensive drug delivery and retailing pipelines, with the oncologists serving as consignment shops.
The drug distribution industry saw the hook in the worm and didn't bite. Neither did the oncologists. The CAP never came to be.
Now here is how the public option can - and should - work: First of all, don't implement the public option right away. Instead, save it and use it as a threatening storm on the horizon, triggering its operation only if the commercial insurance market cannot provide affordable plans to individuals and small groups. Second, if the public option is enacted, set the pricing at 110% to 115% of Medicare rates. That's on the low end of what HMOs will pay for health services, but maybe high enough to entice the most efficient and well-run providers into opting in. From there the market should dictate which way the rates go.
Which brings me to a point regarding Medicare that many folks don't know, and I can't believe I'm about to say this because it'll make me sound like Milton Friedman, God rest his soul:
In a free market, supply and demand are inversely proportional, such that when supply is high and demand is low, prices drop, and vice versa. As the Baby Boomers age into Medicare, the demand for services will rise dramatically. At the same time, we are facing an impending shortage of physicians, as well as most other medical professionals. The result, in a free market economy, would be a significant increase in price commanded for health services.
Medicare works the opposite way. It wants to maintain budget neutrality. CMS, or more accurately, Congress, wants to pay only a certain aggregate amount for health services. So when demand goes up, and quantity supplied increases to meet the demand, Congress will reduce the price paid per unit in order to contain health care costs in the aggregate. What will be the effect of this? More physicians will retire early. Fewer college graduates will enter medical school. Nurses will leave hospital inpatient units in droves. The rate of consolidation in the health care sector will increase.
Medicare and Medicaid beneficiaries will be most vulnerable to these changes, because health care providers will simply stop offering services that are utilized disproportionately by these patients.
Here's a specific prediction: if CMS continues to reduce payments for cancer care - for instance chemotherapy treatments - medical oncologists will stop treating patients in their offices, because they'll lose money on the drugs. They'll begin sending government-insured patients to the hospitals for chemotherapy. However, since hospitals will be hit with a disproportionate number of underpaying patients (the physicians keeping the well-insured patients for themselves), the hospitals will simply shutter their chemotherapy infusion suites. Medicare patients will have to go to the few safety-net hospitals to get their treatments, and they'll have to wait in line, because the demand will far exceed supply.
The same chilling effect will be felt in other sectors of health care where the majority of patients are insured by the government.
Unfortunately, I'm not foretelling a future full of doom. These reductions in services are already occurring. In the large metropolitan market where I work, several community hospitals have already either closed or greatly restricted their outpatient infusion services because they can no longer afford to treat the number of uninsured and underinsured patients seeking chemotherapy at their facilities. And by underinsured, I mean to include Medicaid patients and Medicare patients who don't have a MediGap supplemental policy.
Maybe cancer care is an anomaly. Or maybe it's the canary in the mineshaft.