I hope I am wrong in predicting that the Senate will fail to pass meaningful health care reform legislation this year. But here's why I think I'll be proved right:
- The Republican bloc has chosen to derail health care reform, rather than to work to bring to a vote a package that they could live with. Their motivation can be only short-term political gain, and their act is one of destruction, rather than edification. The Republican bloc is not acting on behalf of American citizens, but on their own political behalf. For that reason, every one of them should be voted out of office at the very next possible chance.
- Liberal Democrats have been surprisingly willing to compromise, but I suspect that they're tired of (in their eyes) selling out and will soon tire of compromise and will return to demanding more socially inclined legislation, led by their party chairman Howard Dean, who is now publicly calling for the current Senate bill to be thrown out.
- Joe Lieberman is becoming drunk with the delusion of power, and will insist on his way, which in summary is to defeat any and every idea and amendment offered by the liberal Democrats.
Here's what I would be happy with: a private health care plan chartered and managed by the Office of Personnel Management and priced by market forces. Subsidies will be awarded to purchasers based on their income level. Don't expand Medicaid. Don't offer Medicare to persons aged 55-64. Instead, put all of these folks in the OPM-managed health plan. While ostensibly more expensive than the Medicare and Medicaid options, it would in fact end up being more affordable, because both government insurance plans (Medicare and Medicaid) are priced on misconceptions and are not adjusted by the market.
Without a "semi-public" option, as some are calling this, the private sector will not deliver affordable health plans for the currently uninsured. And without some form of public option, the bill won't pass the Senate.
But, for the sake of argument, let's say the Senate does pull itself together and passes a health care reform bill. Whatever squeaks out of the Senate will be a far cry from what the House generated, and the Conference Committee will have a herculean task pulling a mash-up out of these two disparate pieces of legislation.
President Obama, may I make a suggestion? While the clowns of Congress are performing on the current three-ring circus, bring your staff together in the West Wing and write a Health Care Reform Bill that accomplishes what you set out to do. As soon as the current effort flops, bring your bill to both houses, and commence twisting arms until they break or pull off. You won't have to water it down like the current bills because you'll be able to leverage Congress' failure to empower your negotiating position.
The pundits say that your presidency will live or die by the success or failure of health care reform. Pundits are stupid. They said the same thing about Bill Clinton, and his presidency, though sullied by failing to reform health care, was nonetheless very successful. BUT, if the pundits are right, and health care reform will define your presidency, wouldn't you rather be responsible for what ultimately passes?
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